Looking Back at the 2012 NBA Redraft: Where Would Top Picks Land Today?

Looking back at the 2012 NBA Draft now feels like revisiting a time capsule—one filled with both predictable stardom and surprising busts. I’ve followed the league closely for over a decade, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that draft night predictions are more art than science. That year, Anthony Davis went first overall, and rightly so—he’s built a Hall of Fame résumé. But after him? Oh, the chaos begins. If we redrafted today with the clarity of hindsight, the entire lottery would shuffle dramatically. It’s not just about who became an All-Star; it’s about durability, growth, and sometimes, plain luck. And speaking of unpredictability, the recent 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup reminded us that giants can fall—just as Canada stunned Team USA and other basketball powerhouses. That same underdog energy echoes when we reassess draft classes: overlooked talents often rise, while surefire picks sometimes fade.

Let’s start with Anthony Davis. No debate here—he’d still be the number one pick. Since his rookie year, Davis has averaged 24 points, 10 rebounds, and over two blocks per game, anchoring defenses and winning an NBA championship with the Lakers in 2020. But what fascinates me is how the next few picks would unfold. Damian Lillard, originally taken sixth by Portland, would easily slide into the second spot. I’ve always admired his clutch gene and loyalty to one franchise before the Milwaukee trade. He’s a six-time All-Star, a walking logo-three threat, and he’s poured in over 20,000 career points. Meanwhile, Bradley Beal—picked third originally—might slip a few spots due to injuries, even though he’s averaged 30 points per game in a season. Then there’s Draymond Green. Oh, the debates I’ve had about him! Selected 35th in 2012, he’d rocket into the top five today. Love him or hate him, his defensive IQ and playmaking fueled Golden State’s dynasty. Four rings, a Defensive Player of the Year award—you can’t ignore that impact, even if his scoring doesn’t pop off the stat sheet.

But here’s where it gets messy. Remember Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going second to Charlotte? In a redraft, he might not even crack the top 15. His offensive game never evolved, and he was out of the league by his late 20s. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton—the 39th pick—becomes a steal, landing in the late lottery. I’ve watched him blossom into a two-time All-Star and a crucial piece for Milwaukee’s 2021 title run. His mid-range game is pure silk. And let’s not forget about the international flavor, which ties back to that FIBA World Cup surprise. In 2012, Jonas Valančiūnas was picked fifth, and he’s still a reliable double-double machine, but players like Evan Fournier (originally 20th) showed in FIBA that role players can shine on big stages. Fournier lit up scoreboards for France, and in a redraft, his scoring punch might earn him a slightly higher slot, though probably not lottery status.

What stands out to me, though, is how health reshapes legacies. Take Andre Drummond. He was the ninth pick and led the league in rebounds multiple times—he even grabbed 25 boards in a single game back in 2018. But in today’s pace-and-space NBA, his limited mobility drops him a bit. Conversely, Harrison Barnes (seventh pick) hasn’t missed many games in his career, and his versatility as a 3-and-D wing keeps him relevant. I’d slot him in the late teens now. Then there’s the tragedy of players like Thomas Robinson, the fifth pick, who bounced around six teams in five years. It’s a stark reminder that draft position doesn’t guarantee success—development and fit matter just as much.

As I piece this redraft together, I keep thinking about Team USA’s loss to Canada in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. It wasn’t just an upset; it was a lesson in humility. Similarly, redrafting the 2012 class humbles us. We overvalued athleticism in some cases and underestimated intangibles. For instance, Jae Crowder, picked 34th, wasn’t flashy, but he’s been a playoff staple for multiple contenders because of his toughness and corner threes. I’d move him into the 20s. And what about Will Barton? He went 40th but carved out a solid decade as a scorer. In a redraft, he’s a second-round target again, but maybe a team grabs him earlier for instant offense.

If I had to summarize, the top five in a 2012 redraft would look something like: 1. Anthony Davis, 2. Damian Lillard, 3. Draymond Green, 4. Bradley Beal, and 5. Khris Middleton. Yeah, I’m high on Middleton—his playoff performances won me over. But beyond that, the first round would be littered with second-round gems and fallen stars. It’s a fun exercise, but it also highlights the draft’s inherent gamble. Just like in international play, where Canada proved that depth and cohesion can topple superstars, the NBA draft teaches us to value fit and long-term growth over instant hype. So, next time you watch a draft, remember: the real game begins after the picks are made.